Search results for "forecast combination"

Suite of Statistical Models Forecasting Latvian GDP

2014

Abstract We develop a suite of statistical models to forecast Latvian GDP. We employ various univariate and multivariate econometric techniques to obtain short-term GDP projections and to assess the performance of the models. We also comprise the information contained in components of GDP and obtain short-term GDP projections from disaggregated perspective. We run out-of-sample forecasting procedures to evaluate GDP projections and to assess forecasting accuracy of all individual statistical models. We conclude that factor and bridge models are among the best individually performing models in the suite. Forecasting accuracy obtained using disaggregated models of factor and bridge models is …